基于贝叶斯方法的深层充电效应风险模型评估          下载免费PDF全文

李程  陈东 《地球物理学报》2019,62(6):1991-2000

高能电子穿透航天器并在其内部沉积电荷从而引发深层充电效应,是导致卫星故障的重要因素之一.为了评估深层充电效应诱发卫星异常的风险,本文基于贝叶斯方法,使用一颗地球同步轨道卫星的异常数据和GOES-8卫星的电子通量探测数据,计算了不同能量阈值及累积时间的电子注量、不同卫星配置下模拟仿真的沉积电荷,并分别与卫星异常建立一系列概率风险模型.本文从模型中随机抽样得到模拟异常,并与实测异常构造混淆矩阵以评估模型拟合优度,结果表明1.0MeV电子3日累积注量-卫星异常概率风险模型为该卫星最优模型.本文利用最优模型对该卫星深层充电效应风险进行了计算,在1.0MeV电子3日累积注量达到2.0×10~(10)cm~(-2)·sr~(-1)时,该卫星发生深层充电异常的平均后验概率为27%,且95%最小可信值为22%.根据最优模型,我们对该卫星最可能导致异常的部件的材料和结构等特征做出了推断.  相似文献   

南海西沙永乐龙洞沉积物组成、来源及其沉积作用     

范德江  田元  傅亮  罗珂  孙晓霞  毕乃双  姚鹏  刘光兴  陈洪举  杨作升 《海洋与湖沼》2018,49(6):1203-1210

南海永乐龙洞发育于永乐珊瑚礁台地,龙洞深度达300m,为世界之最。沉积物堆积在龙洞的洞壁斜坡、龙洞中部的转折平台以及洞底等部位。使用激光粒度仪、X射线粉晶衍射仪、X射线荧光光谱仪等对采自不同深度的沉积物进行了粒级、矿物物相、元素含量的研究。研究结果表明:龙洞沉积物绝大部分为钙质生物碎屑,以砂粒级碎屑为主,含砾石碎屑、粉砂碎屑,分选和磨圆差;沉积物矿物组成以文石、高镁方解石为主,含少量低镁方解石,其平均含量分别为69%、28%、3%;化学组成以Ca、Mg、Sr为主,平均含量分别为35.5%、0.9%、0.5%,含少量Si、Al、Ti、P、S等元素。该区沉积物来源包括礁坪生物碎屑和东亚季风风尘陆源物质两个方面,以礁坪来源的生物碎屑为主;龙洞沉积作用包括机械捕获作用和垂直沉降作用两种方式,而以机械捕获作用为主。  相似文献   

利用基于环境因子的动态产量模型评估西南大西洋阿根廷滑柔鱼     

汪金涛  陈新军  Kevin W. Staples  陈勇 《海洋学报(英文版)》2018,37(2):94-101

西南大西洋阿根廷滑柔鱼，Illex argentinus，巴塔哥尼亚南部群体是重要的经济种类。海洋环境因子在柔鱼资源分布中起着重要的作用。本研究利用基于环境因子的动态产量模型评估2000-2010年的滑柔鱼的资源量。假设海洋环境因子（滑柔鱼产卵场最适宜海表温度占比）影响动态产量模型的参数K，DIC值表明在正态分布和均匀分布下均是基于环境因子的评估模型优于基本的动态产量模型。阿根廷滑柔鱼的最大可持续产量（MSY）在351600吨到685 100吨之间，资源生物量在1322400吨到1 803 000吨之间，其捕捞死亡系数均小于F_0.1和F_MSY，资源处在良好状态，没有遭受过度捕捞。本研究为应用环境因子在柔鱼类的资源评估与管理提中供了科学的参考方法。  相似文献   

Modelling atmospheric and hydrologic processes for assessment of meadow restoration impact on flow and sediment in a sparsely gauged California watershed          下载免费PDF全文

N. Ohara  M. L. Kavvas  Z. Q. Chen  L. Liang  M. Anderson  J. Wilcox  L. Mink 《水文研究》2014,28(7):3053-3066

The restoration of meadowland using the pond and plug technique of gully elimination was performed in a 9‐mile segment along Last Chance Creek, Feather River Basin, California, in order to rehabilitate floodplain functions such as mitigating floods, retaining groundwater, and reducing sediment yield associated with bank erosion and to significantly alter the hydrologic regime. However, because the atmospheric and hydrological conditions have evolved over the restoration period, it was difficult to obtain a comprehensible evaluation of the impact of restoration activities by means of field measurements. In this paper, a new use of physically based models for environmental assessment is described. The atmospheric conditions over the sparsely gauged Last Chance Creek watershed (which does not have any precipitation or weather stations) during the combined historical critical dry and wet period (1982–1993) were reconstructed over the whole watershed using the atmospheric fifth‐generation mesoscale model driven with the US National Center for Atmospheric Research and US National Center for Environmental Prediction reanalysis data. Using the downscaled atmospheric data as its input, the watershed environmental hydrology (WEHY) model was applied to this watershed. All physical parameters of the WEHY model were derived from the existing geographic information system and satellite‐driven data sets. By comparing the prerestoration and postrestoration simulation results under the identical atmospheric conditions, a more complete environmental assessment of the restoration project was made. Model results indicate that the flood peak may be reduced by 10–20% during the wet year and the baseflow may be enhanced by 10–20% during the following dry seasons (summer to fall) in the postrestoration condition. The model results also showed that the hydrologic impact of the land management associated with the restoration mitigates bank erosion and sediment discharge during winter storm events. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

GEOCHEMICAL EXPLORATION     

《Abstract of Chinese Geological Literature》2014,(4)

正20142366Bi Yuanqing(Institute of Geophysical and Geochemical Survey Technology of Anhui Province,Hefei 230022,China);Fang Junhua Analysis of Ore-Prospecting Potential in the Taojiaxiang Mining Site,Zongyang County(Geology of Anhui,ISSN1005-6157,CN34-1111/P,23(4),2013,p.256-260,5illus.,10refs.)  相似文献   

黑龙江省海伦市长发镇土地质量地球化学评价及开发建议     

刘国栋  杨泽  戴慧敏  张一鹤  肖红叶  陈江 《地质与资源》2020,29(6):533-542

基于海伦市长发镇1：1万土地质量地球化学调查获得的土壤重金属元素和养分元素数据，参照土壤环境质量标准（GB15618—2018）和土地质量地球化学评价规范（DZ/T0295—2016），采用单指标评价法对研究区土壤养分和土壤环境质量进行评价，并在此基础上，将两者叠加分析，对研究区进行土地质量地球化学综合判定.结果表明：研究区内土壤养分以丰富及较丰富为主，分别占长发镇总面积的37.49%和62.22%，区内缺乏B、Mo；研究区99.94%的土地为无风险（一等），0.06%的土地为风险可控（二等），风险可控土地主要受Cd及Hg元素的影响；土地质量地球化学综合评价结果显示，研究区以一等（优质）土地为主，占评价区总面积的99.66%；研究发现长发镇富Se土地资源面积19.25 km²，土壤中Se含量为0.4×10^-6～1.4×10^-6，平均值为0.44×10^-6；长发镇符合绿色食品产地的耕地面积138.44 km²，占调查区耕地面积的99.84%，其中绿色富Se、绿色食品产地分别为18.53 km²和119.91 km².  相似文献   

改进的小波阈值函数对变形监测数据的去噪研究     

甘若  陈天伟  郑旭东  段青达  潘梅 《大地测量与地球动力学》2020,40(1):17-22

基于小波分析中传统的阈值函数,结合其他学者提出的小波阈值函数,提出一种改进的小波阈值函数,并将其应用于变形监测数据的去噪处理。理论分析和算例表明,新的小波阈值去噪函数能够有效去除噪声。  相似文献   

甘肃省地热资源赋存特征及潜力评价     

谢娜  喻生波  丁宏伟  张明泉 《中国地质》2020,47(6):1804-1812

甘肃省地热资源丰富，其地热资源的开发利用具有较大的潜力。本文介绍了甘肃省地热资源分布概况，结合地区构造、地热水化学特征、地热资源量及开发利用现状探讨了甘肃隆起山地对流型与沉积盆地传导型地热资源的赋存特征，并对两种类型地热资源潜力进行了分析评价。结果表明，沉积盆地地热资源分布于河西、陇西及陇东盆地等，热储类型为裂隙型和孔隙型，热储层自元古宙至新生代均有发育，岩性以砂岩为主；隆起山地型地热资源主要分布于祁连山和西秦岭造山带，热储类型为断裂破碎带，岩性以花岗岩为主；通过潜力计算得知，全省热量开采系数≥0.4的仅占29.17%，表明目前甘肃地热资源开采程度较低，开采潜力较大。  相似文献   

中国稀土元素地球化学背景与远景区优选     

王学求  周建  迟清华  王玮  张必敏  聂兰仕  刘东盛  徐善法  吴慧  高燕芳 《地球学报》2020,41(6):747-758

稀土元素是现代科技、新能源、特种制造的关键性材料, 以其不可替代性和稀缺性, 而备受关注, 很多国家将其列为关键资源或战略资源。地球化学是研究稀土分布和发现稀土矿床的有效方法。本文利用“化学地球”大科学计划获得的全国15个稀土元素地球化学基准数据以及“一带一路”的中蒙边境、中缅老越边境地区地球化学填图数据为基础, 阐述中国稀土地球化学背景和圈定远景区。获得全国岩石和汇水域沉积物15个稀土元素、轻稀土(ΣLREE)、重稀土(ΣHREE)和总稀土(ΣREE)背景值。全国岩石背景值分别为: ΣLREE 121 μg/g, ΣHREE 35.0 μg/g, ΣREE 157 μg/g, 轻重稀土比值为3.5。全国汇水域沉积物背景值分别为: ΣLREE 134.0 μg/g, ΣHREE 38.5 μg/g, 和ΣREE 173 μg/g, 轻重稀土比值为3.5。总体上汇水域沉积物与岩石一致, 但含量略高于岩石。全国共圈定稀土地球化学异常区35处, 其中有26处异常与已知稀土矿或稀土成矿带相吻合, 新发现稀土超富集中心的稀土异常9处, 分别位于内蒙白云鄂博以西的乌拉特中旗—乌拉特后旗、华南异常富集中心、松潘—甘孜—攀西地区、云南红河州—中越边境、三江南段—中缅边境、雅鲁藏布江东段、西藏札达地区、中塔边境、黔东正安—荔波地区。这些异常显示, 是具有寻找白云鄂博型、碱性岩型、离子吸附型、花岗伟晶岩型、磷块岩型和泥岩型稀土矿的有利地区。  相似文献   

Sedimentary and geochemical characterization of Middle–Late Miocene formations in the Neogene Tsugaru Basin,Japan by means of DTH27‐1 well sediment analysis     

Paolo Martizzi  Shun Chiyonobu  Hiroyuki Arato 《Island Arc》2020,29(1)

Middle–Late Miocene age siliceous formations outcropping along the northwestern side of Honshu Island are considered prospective source rocks for hydrocarbons. An analysis of geophysical, sedimentological, and geochemical properties is essential to evaluate the formations' source potential, and to understand the factors that determined the accumulation and preservation of organic matter. This study investigates the Middle–Late Miocene geological record of the Tsugaru back‐arc basin, located in the western part of Aomori prefecture, through an analysis of a 200 m long portion of a core from the DTH27‐1 well; this core is composed of the diatomaceous siltstones of the Akaishi Formation and the siliceous mudstones of the Odoji Formation. Sedimentological and geophysical characterization showed that the Akaishi Formation's diatomaceous siltstones are mostly massive and bioturbated, have low magnetic susceptibility, and demonstrate moderate natural radioactivity. Although the Odoji Formation's siliceous mudstones are massive, they have exceedingly low magnetic susceptibility and high natural radioactivity. Geochemical data from a Rock‐Eval Pyrolysis such as total organic carbon and generative potential (S1 + S2) revealed that, in the Tsugaru area, only the Odoji Formation is a likely prospective source rock for hydrocarbons. On the other hand, T_max values indicate that both the formations are thermally immature for generating hydrocarbons. The difference between the Akaishi and Odoji Formation in the sedimentological facies, in terms of the degree of bioturbation and the organic carbon content, indicates variations in lithological properties, such as porosity and grain size; moreover, this difference indicates a variation in the paleo‐oxygenation of bottom waters, with the transition from oxygen‐deficient conditions in the Middle Miocene to the more oxygenated conditions in the Late Miocene. Both the lithological and paleo‐environmental factors possibly influenced the organic richness in the two formations.  相似文献